Now online: 'A rupture, not a transition? Scenarios of change in the global ecological and rules-based order' with Prof Steven Bernstein

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s stark pronouncement in Davos on the “rupture” of the rules-based order captured the sense of many that long-held international norms hold little sway and the practices of major powers are increasingly unpredictable. Yet, change in global order(s) is nothing new. Our current conceptual frameworks risk overstating contemporary change even as they may have missed more subtle, but still significant, changes in global order and governance over the last several decades.

This talk by Oxford Martin Visiting Fellow Steven Bernstein makes the case for analysing international norms, practices, and their interaction to understand processes of change and continuity in global order. It identifies four scenarios of change, with illustrations from aspects of the global ecological, development, and rules-based order.

The talk took place at the Oxford Martin School on May 18th, 2026. Watch the recording by visiting https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/events/scenarios-of-change.